Summary
Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market exchange, is in advanced talks to raise at least $750 million at a $40 billion valuation — nearly doubling from $22 billion in under four months. Annualized revenue reportedly reached $4 billion in July, driven largely by sports contracts, widening its lead over Polymarket and prompting consideration of a 2027 IPO. Its rise into a multi-billion-dollar platform raises both a growth story and a governance challenge: Kalshi has flagged insider-trading cases (involving ex-Rep. George Santos, a White House teleprompter operator) to the CFTC, while Trump family interests (TruthPredict, Trump Jr. advisory roles) create an unusually close relationship between the presidency and platforms where political information can be traded.
Key Points
- In talks with Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management for at least $750M
- Valuation: $40B (up from $22B less than four months ago)
- Annualized revenue reportedly reached $4 billion in July, driven largely by sports contracts
- Widening lead over Polymarket in prediction markets
- Considering a potential 2027 IPO
- Insider-trading crackdown: flagged bets involving ex-Rep. George Santos, a White House teleprompter operator, others
- Cases referred to the CFTC
- Trump Media developing TruthPredict; selling rapid access to Truth Social posts that could move markets
- Donald Trump Jr. advises Kalshi and has ties to rival Polymarket
- Raises governance/integrity questions for markets where political info can be traded