Summary
Federal digital asset policy in the US is running on two clocks. The CLARITY Act — the market structure bill that the industry, the Trump Administration, and Wall Street all agree matters most — remains stalled in the Senate, short of the 60 votes needed for cloture. Meanwhile, the GENIUS Act's implementing rules are advancing through the OCC, FDIC, Treasury, and FinCEN, with final rules expected before year-end. The SEC under Chair Paul Atkins has formally retired "regulation by enforcement" against crypto and is writing rules instead, while the CFTC approved the first true bitcoin perpetual futures contract for listing on a US exchange. The result is a complex landscape where regulatory momentum advances without legislative certainty.
Key Facts
- CLARITY Act: passed House 294-134 (July 2025); stalled in Senate, short of 60 votes
- GENIUS Act: signed July 18, 2025; OCC/FDIC/Treasury/FinCEN proposed rules published
- SEC under Chair Atkins: retired "regulation by enforcement"; SEC-CFTC taxonomy (March 2026) classifies BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP as non-security digital commodities
- CFTC: approved first true bitcoin perpetual futures contract (May 2026)
- White House Working Group: 160+ page report with 100+ recommendations (July 2025)
- Banking agencies: Fed pulled SR 23-8 guidance; OCC confirmed banks can offer crypto custody without prior approval
- CLARITY Act sticking points: DeFi treatment, AML/BSA reporting, ethics provisions, reconciling three versions
- Prediction markets: 45-60% odds of CLARITY Act enactment in 2026
- August recess seen as real deadline before Senate calendar fills with appropriations and midterm politics
Why It Matters
The US is in a peculiar position: the most important crypto market structure bill is stuck in the Senate, yet the agencies are moving faster than they have in years. The SEC's shift from enforcement to rulemaking, the CFTC's approval of bitcoin perpetual futures, and the banking agencies' rollback of restrictive guidance all create a more permissive regulatory environment — but without the CLARITY Act's legal certainty on jurisdiction, registration, and customer asset segregation. For fintechs and crypto companies, this means building compliance programs flexible enough to absorb the CLARITY Act if it passes, while taking advantage of the regulatory openings that already exist. The GENIUS Act's stablecoin framework is the one area where legislative certainty exists, and the implementing rules are the compliance clock to watch.