Summary
Stripe and Advent International made a joint $60.50/share, $53B offer for PayPal in July 2026, backed by ~$50B in committed bank financing. PayPal's board rejected the offer as inadequate on July 20. PayPal then reported Q2 earnings that beat estimates across the board ($8.68B revenue, $1.38 EPS), giving management fresh ammunition to demand a higher price. The battle reveals the strategic importance of consumer distribution in payments: Stripe has the infrastructure (Bridge, Tempo, Open USD) but lacks the 439M consumer accounts, Venmo, and checkout brand that PayPal provides.
Key Points
- Stripe/Advent offer: $60.50/share, ~$53B total, equal stakes, ~$50B committed financing
- PayPal board views offer as too low; weighing financing risk, antitrust risk, long path to close
- PayPal Q2: $8.68B revenue (+5% YoY), $1.38 EPS, $486.4B TPV, $1.8B FCF
- Venmo: monthly active debit card accounts +50% YoY; Venmo debit + Pay with Venmo = 9x+ revenue vs P2P-only
- Braintree: TPV mid-teens growth, transaction margin dollars +1% to $3.9B
- PayPal reorganized into 3 units: Checkout Solutions, Consumer Financial Services & Venmo, Payment Services & Crypto
- Cost savings: $400M gross run-rate in 2026, $1.5B over 2-3 years
- Stripe owns Bridge (stablecoin infra, acquired Feb 2025), Tempo (blockchain), Open USD
- Stripe lacks consumer distribution — PayPal would provide 439M accounts, Venmo, checkout brand
- Stock trading near $58 after earnings — closer to $60.50 bid but still below
- Next move belongs to Stripe/Advent: pay more or walk away