Summary
The CLARITY Act remains stalled on ethics provisions. No bipartisan agreement on blocking senior officials from profiting from crypto ventures. Warren requested Trump's H1 2026 financial disclosure. Galaxy cut odds to 50%; Polymarket at 40%. The legislative window is narrowing before lawmakers leave Washington.
Key Points
- Combined Senate text: not yet public (Senate Banking + Agriculture drafts)
- Lummis-Moreno Trump briefing: July 16; no public readout
- Key impasse: ethics provision blocking senior government officials from profiting from crypto ventures
- Senator Warren: requested Trump's H1 2026 financial disclosure; noted $1.4B+ in 2025 crypto earnings
- Warren's concern: 2025 disclosure not up-to-date; next required filing not until May 2027
- Galaxy Digital odds: 50% for 2026 passage (cut from higher)
- Polymarket odds: 40% for 2026 enactment
- House passed: July 2025 (294-134)
- Senate Banking Committee passed: May 2026 (amended version)
- House subcommittee hearing: July 18, 2026; Rep. Steil called for passage
- Banking groups: ABA, ICBA opposed stablecoin yield provisions in CLARITY
- CLARITY structure: classifies digital assets into 3 categories; CFTC jurisdiction over digital commodities
- If CLARITY passes: would amend some GENIUS Act provisions
- If CLARITY fails: U.S. digital asset regulatory framework remains incomplete