Summary
The CLARITY Act faces four unresolved disputes: (1) ethics provisions limiting senior government officials' crypto ties (targeting Trump's $636M memecoin), (2) DeFi developer liability protections under the BRCA section, (3) stablecoin yield language (banks still pushing for broader ban despite Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise), and (4) Senate Agriculture Committee Democrats' concerns. Galaxy Research puts passage odds at ~50-50; Polymarket odds fell to 48% from 74% in May. The target floor vote is the week of July 13.
Key Points
- Four remaining disputes: ethics/Trump ties, DeFi BRCA protections, stablecoin yield, Ag committee concerns
- Ethics: Sen. Gillibrand revived crypto ban push after Trump's $636M memecoin disclosure
- DeFi BRCA: Sen. Cortez Masto pushing for more changes to developer liability protections
- Stablecoin yield: Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise allows activity-based rewards, bans passive yield on idle balances — but banks still pushing for broader ban
- JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon: "The banks will not accept it that way"
- Polymarket odds: 48% (down from 74% in May); Galaxy: ~50-50
- Target floor vote: week of July 13 (~13 working days remaining before August recess)
- Lame duck session (post-November elections) is backup option but highly unpredictable
- White House advisor Patrick Witt expressed confidence in July 4 passage timeline
- Digital Chamber fly-in: 50 members visiting 30+ lawmakers' offices
- Missing mid-May markup window would have made passage harder; bill cleared Banking Committee